Bond markets continue to perform well, but the outlook remains uncertain. Easing policy, AI-driven productivity, and strong demand support optimism, while labor market fragility, inflation risks, tariff pressures, and stretched valuations warrant caution. The shifting balance requires disciplined positioning.
Key takeaways
Performance recap
Bonds have delivered this year. Higher coupons combined with price appreciation from a decline in yields and further spread compression have boosted bond returns across sectors. Year to date as of September 30, the broader U.S. bond market, as measured by the Bloomberg US Universal Index, has produced returns of 6.31%. We anticipate that conditions for strong performance will continue.
The big picture
The labor market is realigning to a lower trajectory, and the impact from tariffs will build into 2026. However, positive growth drivers are on the horizon, which should help the economy over the coming quarters. With additional rate cuts on the way, we see an opportunity for investors to lock in durable yields further out on the curve.
Our approach
Strong investor demand has pushed spreads even tighter in taxable credit, despite near-record September issuance. We expect credit to continue to perform well and are leaning into segments that have lagged in recent tightening.
Related items
Notes
- Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.
- All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
- Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
- Although the income from a municipal bond fund is exempt from federal tax, you may owe taxes on any capital gains realized through the fund’s trading or through your own redemption of shares. For some investors, a portion of the fund’s income may be subject to state and local taxes, as well as the federal Alternative Minimum Tax.