Rising rates, flatter curve: This time isn't different, it just may take longer

September 13, 2018

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Joe Davis

Joe Davis
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The U.S. yield curve has flattened substantially and will likely continue to do so as the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates while the long end remains range-bound. In this Global macro matters note, Vanguard researchers explain that the likelihood of a yield curve inversion—historically a strong leading indicator of an economic slowdown—increases substantially as we enter 2019. They also examine how these changes might affect the economy and investment portfolios.

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