Estimating the economic impact of the COVID-19 shock

June 30, 2020

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The unevenness of the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on economic growth across sectors and by geographic region requires an inspection of both traditional economic data and higher-frequency indicators. New Vanguard Global Macro Matters research analyzes these data in estimating when major economies may approach a full recovery. We expect China to do so more quickly than the United States, the euro area, or the United Kingdom.

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